Dutch officials warned in 2021 about distorted vaccination rates in Aruba and Curaçao

ORANJESTAD — Dutch officials warned as early as May 2021 that vaccination percentages in Aruba and Curaçao could present a distorted picture. Internal correspondence from the Dutch Health Ministry (VWS) shows that the number of residents without residency documents was unknown.

The issue concerned the population figures used to calculate coverage, rather than the number of vaccines administered. A vaccination rate of 70 percent among registered residents, for example, did not necessarily mean that 70 percent of everyone living on an island had been vaccinated.

Both islands recorded vaccinations given to undocumented residents. However, without knowing the size of that population, overall coverage could not be calculated precisely. Differences in population estimates could also affect international comparisons.

The warning, dated May 11, 2021, was shared with those involved on the islands and then State Secretary Paul Blokhuis. The documents do not establish that Aruba or Curaçao deliberately published incorrect figures or made wrong decisions based on them. They do show that the limitations were known early on, when vaccination coverage was a factor in discussions about easing restrictions.